Predicting Maiden Progression

December 25, 2008
Steve Thygersen

I am giving away one of my secrets here boys and girls, seriously. I doubt that any angle in horse racing is as profitable
as correctly predicting which maiden runners will progress at a quantum rate in their second and third runs. I have been
watching all of the maidens in Southern California and have been making note of those whose Beyers jump significantly
after their debuts. I define quantum leap as a second run that is anywhere from 10-20 points higher than their first run;
these are the high odds babies that will put a smile on your face. It applies to second runs and to some degree third
runs, although I don't use it much in the third run as the accuracy is about half what the second run is, and the odds
vaporize after that first progression. Note that this is a work in progress, but there are several clues I can confidently
disclose:

Initial Beyer Speed Figure

Those that are candidates for a quantum progression generally had a debut run that was assigned a BSF of somewhere
between 40 and 70, although depending on how they ran, you can expand the range down to 35 and up to 75. For those
that run under the parameters (debut of less than 45), they can still pull a sizable progression, say from a 34 to a 52,
it's just that even with the progression they are not winners, more likely running 3rd or 4th. They do tend to progress
again in their next run, usually half the amount they progressed in race two, so in the case I just described they would
go from a 34 to a 52 and then on to a 61, where they actually have a chance. That is the reason I say the floor figure is
45, really the base launch point that can progress to contention next out.

Here is the odd part; maidens who run a debut above 70 have a quantum progression in their second run at about 1/8
the rate of those with slower initial runs. It still happens, but less frequently and more on the order of a 6-8 point jump. It
is not unusual at all to see one who ran an 83 first out to run their first ten races in a limited 78-89 range. Once you are
north of 85 you are talking about future stakes runners, and their progression is usually in smaller increments
(something like 85 to 90 to 93 to 97).

Interest and Finish

Here is the other factor that is critical in the prediction, that the runner showed an interest in the race and finished
somewhere in the middle to lower third of the pack, but not last (I also tend to exclude the second to last's as well).
How they ran - flash and fade, gained ground or "plodder" (passing tired horses) really doesn't seem to matter. I really
shouldn't say that, any time they close the gap or hold position, no matter how small is a plus.

Post Debut Works

The works after the debut, especially the second work post race should be as good (or better) than what they ran before
their debut. This is the shakiest clue of the lot because many times trainers will either not work them between starts in
they are babies or they back way off of them. That being said, post race works that are as good or better than those
before their debut are a very good sign that you have a progressor. DO NOT throw one out because they didn't have a
work or had mediocre works. I do have heartburn with those that work very slow (1:15 6F, 1:03 5F, :51 4F) but I am
really okay with some 1:14's or a 1:01. Use this clue as additional data, not a decision point.

Trip Handicapping

Here is what can tie it all together - what you actually saw in the race. I look for those that had a blown break, or had
some other problems (squeezed, checked, bumped) or were running against a very good horse or field. How did they
respond to the rider? Were they intimidated or were reluctant to go down low? THIS IS WHY YOU KEEP RECORDS
OF RACES!!!

Real World Examples

Now let's take a look at some real world examples:

Hollywood Park - Race 9 (MCL-25K) - Sunday December 21, 2008

There was one runner in this race who fit our profile, and that was second time starter Nordic Storm. Here is his past
performance: