Article - Short Field Handicapping

December 20, 2008
Steve Thygersen

Every day I hear handicappers whining about the Southern California short field races, saying "it's ridiculous, you can't make
any money in those damn races!". I then sympathize with them deeply and as I am walking away I think "what a cracker,
he's missing the biggest scam in gambling".

First and Foremost: If you handicap short field races as you would a full field race, you and your wallet will soon be forcibly
separated from each other. They are a completely different animal that requires a different kind of handicapping and a new
thought process. Here are some basic observations about short field race handicapping:

Stalkers Have a Huge Advantage

There are probably double the number of stalker types winning in short fields than in full fields. Which, if you think about it,
makes sense - what kills most stalkers? That would be traffic - trapped on the rail, checked, covered up, 5 wide� But
without those traffic considerations (like in a short field), you can be pretty sure that your horse won't be playing dodge ball
coming around the turn. One of the changes you need to make in your handicapping is on lone speed. To win from the front
end of a short field race you have to be VERY strong - there can be nothing iffy about whether you can get to the front and
even more important, can you hold??? Frontrunners in short fields set track and world record times. You better be running
that fast, because the rest of the field is right on your ass.

Short Field Prowess is a Serious Angle

If you start watching the past performances for short field races, pay attention to the number of runners that ran in their races
(the number at the end of the performance line in the PP) and also where they finished. Don't be surprised to see lots of
runners who are 4/21 in full field races and 3/3 in 6 horse fields. Conversely there are horses who are 6/8 in "regular" races
and 0/2 in short field races.

Be Careful Tossing Runners in a Short Field

Because of the different dynamics in play in a short field, the variance in pace pressure and the removal of traffic problems, if
the horse can run he is live. Everyone knows the rule about betting one that is running against winners for the first time? Well
it doesn't apply anywhere near as much in a short field, I would estimate 3-4x the number of maiden grads who win next out
versus those in full fields.

Be Careful Backing a Favorite in a Short Field

Just like a short field removes obstacles from the stalkers and closers, it exposes ANY weakness in a favorite. If they are
getting easy leads and then holding on to win by a nose, they are going to get pulverized in a short field. Guaranteed. Same
with closers that are actually tired horse passers. If there is a moment's doubt in your mind, look again closely. A favorite in
a short field has to be head and shoulders above all others - Zenyatta against Outer Space.

Short Fields Have Almost as Many Longshots as Full Fields

Have you lost your mind (that's already been established), that's blasphemous! Guess what, it is a fallacy that all short field
races pay $4.00 to win. Take a look at the results for Hollywood or Santa Anita for a week and look at the number of double
digit pays on short fields and on full fields. Let's look at Saturday's races. There were five short fields and four full fields. Here
is what the winners paid:

Short Fields: 8.00, 23.60, 3.00, 19.60, 16.40
Full Fields: 3.80, 12.60, 5.60, 6.00

Why in the world would you be interested in a horse that paid $23.60 to win in a FIVE HORSE FIELD!!! Well then it must
have been a "freak" day yesterday at Hollywood. Okay, lets go back to Friday:

Short Fields: 5.60, 4.80, 36.20, 5.00
Full Fields: 7.80, 7.40, 4.20, 6.80

Fine we will go back to Thursday:

Short Fields: 18.60, 5.40, 6.20, 6.00, 5.80
Full Fields: 23.20, 7.40, 16.00

Last Sunday? Okay but this is it!

Short Fields: 6.80
Full Fields: 42.20, 6.40, 6.20, 12.00, 11.80, 5.80, 7.00, 9.60, 9.60

So at the end of the week each field type has 5 double digit payers.

Prg. #	PP	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Wt.	Claim $	Equip.	Med.	ML
1	1	Turbo Call	Rosario J	Solis Walther	122	$32,000		L	2-1
2	2	Quindici Man	Gryder A T	Lewis Craig A	122	$32,000	Blk-Off	L	3-1
3	3	Form a Posse	Bejarano R	Dominguez Caesar F	122	$32,000		L	6-1
4	4	Tahoe Kid	Quinonez A	Sadler John W	121	$28,000		L	5-2
5	5	Brave Justice	Delgadillo A	Stute Gary	122	$32,000		L	3-1